Background and General Information The world watches while Mount Agung slowly erupts on the island of Bali, emitting plumes of smoke, ash, and steam, even resulting in some cold lava flows (Tambini, 2017). While the images are certainly impressive, if Agung fully erupts, the results could be disastrous. According to latest news stories from the Indonesian island, about 67,000 residents have already been evacuated, with tens of thousands more on alert (Tambini, 2017). The Mt. Agung evacuation zone has been established a minimum of nine kilometers from the volcano A total of 100,000 people will be immediately affected with long-term consequences like the decimation of entire villages.

In addition to the displacement of people and obvious immediate humanitarian and financial crisis, the eruption of the volcano means loss of tourism dollars for Indonesia’s most important and lucrative destination. Although the mountain is not located in the prime tourist zone, international flights to Bali have been canceled, and many tourists have already left. Tourism is the basis of the Balinese economy, which is already taking a hit from the volcano even though Mount Agung is located more than 70 kilometers from the main tourism areas (“Indonesia: Volcanic Eruption Mt Agung Emergency Plan of Action (EPoA) Operation n° MDRID012,” n.d.). Therefore, a crisis care plan should be sensitive to the need for providing the means of quickly rebuilding the tourism infrastructure and developing an accurate public relations plan.

The eruption started 22 Sept 2017. Since then, the threat levels have increased until the maximum level, due to an increase in seismic activity. The current threat level is Red alert—the highest level possible for a volcano (“Indonesia: Volcanic Eruption Mt Agung Emergency Plan of Action (EPoA) Operation n° MDRID012,” n.d.). Multiple agencies are working together for crisis management, including Indonesian federal authorities, the Department of Meteorology, Climate, and Geophysics, the National Disaster Management Agency, and the Indonesian Red Cross (“Indonesia: Volcanic Eruption Mt Agung Emergency Plan of Action (EPoA) Operation n° MDRID012,” n.d.). The American Volcano Disaster Assistance Program (VDAP) also works in conjunction with Indonesia’s Center for Volcanology and Geologic Hazard Mitigation (Pallister, 2015).

Summary: Immediate Plan of Action

1. The Importance of Strategic Partnerships

The approach being taken to mitigate the crisis has been effective so far. Mount Agung has erupted in the past, the last time being in 1963, and 2000 people died (Gibbens, 2017). Since then, the Indonesian government has vastly improved its disaster readiness and preparedness. Indonesia is squarely within the “ring of fire,” one of the earth’s prime seismic zones. As many as 160,000 people overall have died as a result of volcanoes in Indonesia alone (Gibbons, 2017). Armed with knowledge about the links between seismic activity and eruptions, and with improved monitoring technology, Indonesia is more capable now than ever before to manage a crisis of Agung’s current scope. A broad network between Indonesian government agencies, international aid organizations, and science organizations has helped Indonesia strengthen its crisis management planning already. Pallister (2015)...

Capacity Planning
Capacity planning is one of the most important part of the crisis management plan. Entailing multiple aspects of building resilience, capacity planning also entails preparing civilian and military aviation for how to ensure safe rescue and relief services during and immediately after an eruption (Pallister, 2015). Not only that, aviation officials around the world need to receive improved training for how to fly through the volcanic ash. Pilots from around the world might be required to provide rescue and relief assistance during the eruption, and also, commercial pilots need to be trained in how to mitigate disaster given the sheer numbers of flights to and from Bali or just in the area.

Capacity planning also entails working closely with community leaders in Bali. Communicating the crisis management plan, and delegating responsibility, will help promote resilience and readiness. Capacity planning will also improve public trust, reducing anxiety and alleviating panic during the crisis. Public trust also depends on information sharing, communication transparency, and education. Each crisis/evacuation center needs to be well equipped not just with essentials like water, food, and medical equipment, but also communications devices. Each family should be given an information packet informing them of best practices. Information packets and daily communications will also need to be shared with all communities on the small island of Bali. Responding to the crisis is a collaborative, community effort.

Predict

The most basic, fundamental needs already exist in Bali, such as a community that is well aware of and has prior experience with volcanoes, a collective motivation to respond to the crisis as a community, and a strong legislative framework with institutional support at local, provincial, national, and trans-national levels. Scientific knowledge, scientific monitoring, and warning systems are also firmly in place. Mapping has also been accomplished, with zones of evacuation clearly delineated. The government has also prepared the evacuation centers, with clear evacuation routes and assembly points, Transportation to the shelters is reliable, and there is security in place in the evacuation centers to prevent or mitigate any social problems.

Although all these crucial elements are already in place, there are still a few things that need to be done to benefit the families affected. The first thing is a method of cataloging personal property, which will help the families more easily apply for relief funding. It is predicted that improved inventory of personal belongings will help the families rebuild their communities after the disaster (“Developing a Volcano Emergency Plan,” n.d.). It is also predicted that a more robust inventory management and logistics system be implemented specifically for search, rescue, and medical care. It is predicted that the right information technology using linear programming will help better allocate the limited resources available. It is also predicted that if medical equipment and personnel can be flown into the island now, this will reduce overall costs later.

It is also predicted that thousands of more dollars are needed to secure sufficient numbers of…